I always try to look at the glass half-full, and be optimistic...albeit, cautiously optimistic. However, let's be frank here, the Avs just don't have it this year. They have shown glimpses of talent, drive, and championship-caliber play, but a glimpse implies nothing consistent. It probably would have been more ambitious of me to post this weeks ago when the Avs' demise wasn't so clear-cut, but sometimes the obvious is overlooked. They haven't officially been eliminated from the playoff race yet, though. With two games remaining in the season...both at home, they definitely still have a shot if all the stars align in their favor. BUT...let's be realistic. That ain't gonna happen.
I'm a pretty avid reader, and recently finished reading "Outliers" by Malcolm Gladwell. The book describes just how some of the world's most successful people reached the top of the pyramid. Yeah, these people are undeniably intelligent and capable, but they also knew when to seize an opportunity...many times, though, luck played a significant role. What does this have to do with the Avs' chances of making (or not making the playoffs), you ask? Well, as I said before, all of the stars have to align like Bill Gates' stars aligned when he was able to practice his craft at a conveniently located IT building, in a year when the economy was thriving, and in the midst of the tech boom.
Despite gaining two points in last night's win over Calgary, the Colorado Avalanche still remain in 10th place in the Western Conference with 88 points. They sit behind San Jose, a team that also has 88 points, but with more games left on their schedule, they are given an advantage in the standings. Dallas, and Phoenix, the seventh and eighth place teams respectively, have 89 points. We all know that an Avs win in one of the remaining two games would allow them to leapfrog these teams. However, while the Avs have two games left, San Jose, Dallas, and Phoenix each have four games to play before the regular season ends. The greatest number of points the Avs can attain is 92. San Jose, would have to lose two of their remaining games for the Avs to be tied with them points-wise (again, assuming the Avs win these last two games), Phoenix and Dallas would have to lose three of their remaining four games. Feel free to do the math, the Avs' chances are slim to none at this point.
I'll go ahead and wager that the Avs will beat the Columbus Blue Jackets come Thursday night. I made the mistake of calling an Avs win over this same lowly team back on March 1st, a game in which the home team was shutout 2-0. The Avs are not going to defeat the Nashville Predators on the last game of the season, next Saturday. Nashville has been a dominant team all season, they have already clinched a playoff berth, and their goaltender, Pekka Rinne, is in contention for the Vezina. Put Hal Gill, Ryan Suter, and Shea Weber on defense, and you're not going to score...you're just not. Who cares if they don't have as much offensive punch as some of the other teams in the league? I've said it once, and I'll say it again, a strong defense wins games when it comes down to it.
So...hate to say it fellow Avs fans, there will not be any fireworks to close out the Colorado Avalanche's 2012 campaign. Personally, I hope Joe Sacco gets sacked before next season begins, but I said that after last year's dismal season, and no one listened to me. The Avs are still obviously in the rebuilding stage, and the team is so young and inexperienced, that this exclusion from the playoffs should not really come as a surprise. A 23-year old goaltender and a 20-year old rookie cannot carry your team.
To take a page out of a Cubs fans' handbook...there's always next year...
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